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Eight Guidelines to Help You Select the Ideal Bet Size in Bet Sizing Strategy 

Selecting the optimal stake size in No Limit Hold’em is a difficult issue.

No single “perfect” bet sizing is appropriate for every situation. Several criteria will determine the ideal bet size, such as:

• Action before the flip
• board’s feel
• Stack depth
• Who is superior in range
• …and many more!

This post will teach you eight fundamental guidelines that can help you determine a winning size in any situation, be it a massive overbet or a pot-sized wager of 33%.

Example hands for Rules #2 through #6 were played by participants in the Upswing Lab training course, and Doug Polk examined them.

Now, let’s get started.

The Eight Rules for Bet Sizing 

1. Boost your pre-flop and increase the size of the blinds if there is a weak player.
2. 3 When you will be out of position after the flop, raise your bet before it.
3. Bet modest (25–35% pot) on board textures that are static and dry.
4. Place a hefty wager (55–80% pot) on wet, lively board textures.
5. The stack-to-pot ratio should influence your bet size.
6. When you have a nut advantage, overbet.
7. Make a rather substantial bet (at least 66% of the pot) whenever you double barrel on the turn.
8. Aim for small-scale (25–40% pot) c-betting in three-bet pots.

Let’s now examine each rule more closely.

Rule #1: If there is a weak player in the blinds, increase the size of your preflop raise. 

This adjustment’s primary objective is to increase the weak player’s worth. No matter the size of their hands, weak and inexperienced players typically call raises with the same range (referred to as a “static” calling range).

You should choose the 3.5bb raise if the weak player calls with the same range of hands as they would against the 2.5bb raise since you will be able to win more money (on average).

Big blinds = bb

Rule#2: If you will be out of position after the flop, 3-bet more before the flop. 

When you are in position, you should 3-bet around three times your opponent’s raise size; when you are out of position, you should 3-bet about four times your opponent’s raise size.

You should consider your 3-bets carefully because your opponent will more quickly realize his equity when you are out of position. In contrast, you want to put your opponent in a difficult situation (facing a well-sized 3-bet out of position) with his medium-strength hands. Hence, you normally want to employ a smaller 3-bet size in position.

Rule #3: Place modest bets (25–35% pot) on flat, dry board textures. 

Bets on the flop and turn not only provide value but also prevent your opponents from getting their equity back when they fold. Stated otherwise, you force them to fold with a stake, eliminating their opportunity to win the pot.

The use of tiny bet sizes is more encouraged when equity denial is not a concern. Due to the fact that the majority of your opponent’s hands will have little to no equity versus your value betting range, this is frequently the case on dry boards.

Since calling ranges are typically inelastic, utilizing a lower bet size on dry boards also has its advantages. Put another way, irrespective of the size of the stake, the probability that your opponent will fold to a wager will be comparable. When you can get the same outcome with a smaller wager, why take the chance of betting heavily on your bluffs?

Small bet amounts also function effectively as an exploitative countermeasure against players who fold too frequently. This is especially true in poor online conditions and live games where a lot of opponents frequently play a post-flop style known as “fit or fold.”

Here’s a hand that an Upswing Lab participant played to illustrate this idea:

6 Handed Online Cash. Effective Stacks of 100 Bb. 

Hero receives a CO of 6♦ 5♦. UTG collapses. MP tucks in. Hero jumps up to 2.5bb. BTN collapses. SB gives up. BB makes calls.

Flop (5.5bb): BB checks A, 8, and 3. Hero wagers 1.8 billion dollars. BB gives way.

Doug’s analysis 

A small bet amount (33% in this case) makes the most sense on a dry board such as A♦ 8♠ 3♣. This is due to the likelihood that our value hand range (88, 33, A8s, A3s, AK, AQ, etc.) will not be outdrawn on the turn, which reduces our motivation to utilize a bigger bet to push out our opponent’s equity.

We can see how little equity the BB’s range has in comparison to our value betting range in the equity calculation below:

Only 11.32% of the BB’s expected range is equity.

Additionally, this graphic (which excludes our bluffs) illustrates the equity of each hand in the BB’s range in comparison to our value betting range:

The vast bulk of the BB’s range doesn’t really threaten our value picks.

Furthermore, the calling range of the BB is probably inelastic at this location. Regardless of the stake size, hands like QJo and 65s are typically folded since they are very difficult to play on subsequent streets. They are also drawing very close to death against our valuable hands.

Rule#4: Place a sizable wager (55–80% pot) on moist, lively board textures. 

You should utilize a greater bet size if you believe that your value betting range is susceptible to getting outdrawn. There are three main advantages to this strategy:

When you have a powerful hand, you can build the pot by placing large bets.

Before the turn or river may change your strong hand into a bluff-catcher, larger bets extract more value.

For example, 9♣ 9♦ on T♥ 9♥ 5♠ 4♠ has nearly half of the deck as terrible cards.

Bigger stake sizes increase fold equity, which improves the effectiveness of your bluffs.

For instance, in the private Upswing Lab group, Doug examined the hand that John C. played, which is as follows:

6 Handed Online Cash. Effective Stacks of 100 Bb. 

On the BTN, Hero is dealt A♣ A♥.

UTG increases to 3bb. MP calls. CO contracts. Rises to 11bb, Hero. SB gives up. BB gives way. UTG phone calls. MP calls.

34.5bb Flop: 2♠ 5♥ 3♠

UTG assessments. MP examines. Hero places a 12bb wager. UTG phone calls. MP calls.

Turn (70.5bb): 8°

UTG assessments. MP examines. Hero places a 22.32bb wager. UTG collapses. MP calls.

River: 6.14 MP checks (115.14bb). Hero?

Doug’s analysis 

With the board texture and stack-to-pot ratio, this ~33% flop bet size is too modest. Although the board is small, it is dynamic, allowing our opponents to have a range of flush and backdoor draws.

Another reason to place a big bet on this flop is our stack depth. When one player calls our wager of 22bb (65% of the pot size), we take a turn card with 78.5bb in the pot and 67bb behind. We can easily shove on the turn thanks to this stack-to-pot ratio (more on this in rule #5).

Our bluffs will produce greater fold equity when we pick a flop bet size that permits us to go all in on the turn, and our opponents won’t have a fantastic price to draw.

It’s important to remember that with aces, checking on this flop would also make sense.

Rule #5: Your bet size should be influenced by the stack-to-pot ratio 

The stack-to-pot ratio (SPR) is a crucial variable to take into account when determining the size of your wager.

You have to plan, figuring out how you’re going to proceed with your value hands and bluffs, as well as the size of the pot on subsequent streets.

A lot of players will place excessive bets on the flip and turn, leaving them with very little money to wager on the river. In these kinds of scenarios, bluffing is incredibly inefficient since small river shoves provide little to no fold equity, which is an undesirable outcome.

Bogdan E., an Upswing Lab member, played and submitted this example hand.

150/300 Live 9-Handed Competition. 21,001 Useful Stacks. 

On the BTN, Hero is dealt Q♥ Q♦.

UTG phone calls. UTG+1 makes calls. LJ makes a call. HJ gives up. CO contracts. The hero gains 1,200 points. SB gives up. BB makes calls. UTG+1 makes calls. LJ makes a call.

Flop (5,250): 3-6-3–9

BB verifies. UTG+1 verifications. LJ verifies. Hero places a 3,000 wager. BB gives way. UTG+1 makes calls. LJ gives up.

Turn (11,250): JUTG+1 verifications. Hero places a 7,000 wager. Increases to 15,000 UTG+1. Hero goes all in, raising to 16,800. Calls from UTG+1 display 6d6h.

River: 44,850: 5

Doug’s analysis 

The preflop raise is the first example of size inaccuracy in this hand; a chip count of 1,800–2,000 would have been more appropriate. We need to raise to a size that prevents our opponents from getting such a favorable price to call since there are currently three limpers in the pot.

With the hand we have, QQ, raising to a larger size is especially crucial because high pocket pairs do better when fewer players see the flop and when their SPR is low.

When we flip it at 1,800 and get the same amount of callers, the pot will be 7,650 with 19,200 in the lead. Using a size of about 5,000 (~65% pot) on the flop, given our SPR, positions us favorably for a turn shove — 14,200 into 17,650, assuming one caller (~80% pot).

With this strategy, we can ensure that our bluffs (like QTs) produce good fold equity while still allowing us to extract maximum value with our powerful cards.

Usually, Bogdan’s use of greater sizes on the flop and turn results in an unpleasant place on the river. We would have reached the river with less than a half-pot size bet behind (~10,000 into ~25,000) if our opponent hadn’t check-raised on the turn. This would have been problematic for our triple-barrel bluffs.

Rule #6: When you have a nut advantage, overbet. 

When only you are able to have the strongest cards, overbets perform well on boards that favour your range over your opponent’s range.

Additionally, an overbetting range that consists solely of good hands and bluffs should be polarised. By using such a large size, you may maximize fold equity with our bluffs and obtain the most with your value hands.

Hands that block our opponent’s most likely strong hands that will call are frequently the most successful overbet bluffs. Using the nut flush blocker on a three-to-a-flush board (imagine A♩ K♠ on Q♩ 8♩ 2♿ 6♩ 3♠) is the finest illustration of this.

Doug played this hand, which he self-analyzed in the Upswing Lab’s overbet module:

$100/200 Heads-Up; Effective Stacks of $59,416.

In the BB, Doug is dealt 4♦ 2♦.

BTN increases to $700. Doug gives a call.

(1,400) Flop: 5 A Q

Doug makes a cheque. $980 is staked by BTN. Doug gives a call.

Turn 3 Doug checks ($3,360). BTN verifications.

River: $3,360

Doug makes a cheque. $1,500 is bet by BTN. Doug makes a $10,800 rise. BTN phones A♠ 2♥ and mucks them.

Doug’s analysis 

Once he verifies the turn, we can infer the following regarding the button’s range:

The button lacks the turned nuts (42), so it is quite likely that the hand would value bet on the turn.

Since a 6-high draw would almost surely semi-bluff on the turn, the button does not have the rivered nuts (64).

It seems doubtful that the sets and two pairs (AA, QQ, 55, AQ, A5) in the button’s preflop range were played in this manner.

It is quite improbable that our rival has a nutted hand on this river; therefore, we can plan an overbetting move. We will divide up our value range on the river as follows:

Raise the giant cheque with our strongest hands (64, 42, 55, 33).

Here, overbet check-raising enables us to take advantage of our opponent’s bluffs and extract an additional bet when our opponent bets-calls with a value hand (such as the A2o in this instance).

To counterbalance our value bets, we also need to add a few bluff check raises. Because it stops set combos (55), two-pair combos (A5, Q5, 53), and straight combos (42 and 64), 54 is an excellent choice.

Since we are representing a polarised range, the size of our check-raise in this place should always be large (at least 2x pot).

We can then overbet lead with our medium-to-strong hands, preventing our opponent from checking back for free on the river, by using the remaining value hands (35, A5, A3, A7, and some Axe).

Rule #7: When placing the second continuation bet, wager at least 66% of the pot on the turn. 

Polarisation is the most crucial idea to remember when playing on the turn. Hands that can consistently value bet on the river and those that have a reasonable possibility of improving to the best hand on the river should make up your betting range.

For the following reasons, middling hands—which are usually part of narrow betting ranges—should be examined:

Middling hands will be strong enough to wager on the river for value if the turn checks through.

On the river, you can exploit your opponent’s bluffs by using middling hands.

The poor showdown value hands (such as A/K-high), which you would also check, are shielded by the middling hands.

You can bluff on the river with really weak cards and yet have a credible story if you include middling hands in your turn-checking range.

In this manner, every hand cooperates to optimize the expected value (EV) of your entire approach.

Your stake size should be larger because you are employing a polarised strategy, which will allow you to extract maximum value with your powerful cards and enhance the frequency at which you can bluff. In most circumstances, using less than 66% will just result in a lower overall EV.

Rule #8: In 3-bet pots, you should typically c-bet between 25 and 40 percent of the pot. 

Rule #5 is related to this.

Even if you start with a very small c-bet size, you can place your whole stack on the river with underpot-sized bets since the stack-to-pot ratio in 3-bet pots is so low. Additionally, both in position and out of position, solvers prefer this particular stake amount.

A modest wager often places sufficient pressure on the middle portion of your adversary’s hands, given the ranges involved (making him have a hard time with them).